Researchers shed light on average prognosis after dementia diagnosis

A review of available study evidence has indicated the average life expectancy for men and women, plus the likely time before being admitted to a care home, following a diagnosis of dementia.

The average life expectancy of people diagnosed with dementia ranges from nine years at age 60 to 4.5 years at age 85 for women and, in men, from 6.5 to just over two years, respectively.

The results, published in the British Medical Journal, also suggest that one third of people with dementia are admitted to a nursing home within three years of diagnosis.

“Prognosis after a dementia diagnosis is highly dependent on personal and clinical characteristics”

Study authors

The researchers from MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, noted that survival estimates varied widely and few previous studies had assessed prognosis in terms of time to nursing home admission.

To better understand this, they set out to determine prognosis for people with a dementia diagnosis, both for remaining life expectancy and for time to nursing home admission.

Their findings are based on 261 studies published between 1984 and 2024 involving more than five million people with dementia.

The studies used in the review were mainly from Europe and North America with an average follow-up time of seven years.

The researchers found that average survival from diagnosis appeared to be strongly dependent on age, ranging from 8.9 years at mean age 60 for women to 2.2 years at mean age 85 for men.

Overall, dementia reduced life expectancy by about two years for people with a diagnosis at age 85, 3-4 years with a diagnosis at age 80, and up to 13 years with a diagnosis at age 65.

Average survival was up to 1.4 years longer among Asian populations and 1.4 years longer among people with Alzheimer’s disease compared with other types of dementia.

Average time to nursing home admission was just over three years, with 13% of people admitted in the first year after diagnosis, increasing to a third at three years and more than half at five years.

The study authors noted that dementia prognosis was “highly dependent on patient, disease, and study characteristics, offering potential for individualised prognostic information and care planning”.

They added: “About one third of remaining life expectancy was lived in nursing homes, with more than half of people moving to a nursing home within five years after a dementia diagnosis.

“Patients with Alzheimer’s disease had a more favourable prognosis than those with vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, or Lewy body dementia,” they said.